Greetings, gang, as I just have unpacked my hand-carried bags from my return trip from Montana and want to give you an E-18 update on what I both observed and learned from my fishing friends during my week-long stay there in God’s own backyard, to wit: By all indications, 2018 is going to be a “high water year” when it comes to this year’s runoff (if and when that runoff ever gets underway)!
During each of the three years ending in 2016, Montana witnessed average precipitation levels with the “snow water equivalent” of the amassed snow being spot on twenty year averages. Each of those three years, however, experienced “early runoffs” where, during either the month April or May, higher than average temperatures visited western Montana such that the otherwise “average” snowpack was melted off earlier than normal, leaving us in each of those years with below average but very fishable water conditions when it came time for our Extravaganzas.
Last year, western Montana had an above average snowpack but cool temperatures preserved that amassed snow in the upper climes until our Group One arrived on the scene and we then saw warmer temperatures and too much snow runoff/water flowage for us to safely fish our normal haunts, the three rivers confluencing in and around Missoula, namely the Clark Fork of the Columbia River, the Bitterroot River and the Big Blackfoot “A River Runs Through It” River. As we have done several times over the 15 year history of the Extravaganza, we redirected and bussed our efforts to fish the Missouri River, at Craig, Montana—a 125 mile jaunt each way over the Continental Divide to fish below the regulated, safe tailwaters below the Missouri’s Holter Dam.
Regardless of the water flow over each of the past 15 years (see the attached chart that of the flowage that we have done over the past eleven years using the water flow of our own Rock Creek as a baseline), we have and will fish every single day of every Extravaganza, the only question being will we be fishing (a) Missoula’s local rivers or (b) the Mighty Mo (where the fish count is 5,000 fish per mile [that is one fish per every foot, gang!] and the average trout is 18+ inches in length)?
As to this year, our answer to this question is now very much in doubt…right now, the ambient temperatures in western Montana have been running about 5 degrees below historical norms (witness my pics from last Thursday when we got 6” of fresh snow at Headquarters!) and the regional forecast temperatures for the next several weeks are to be relatively low, in the high 50’s to low 60’s. Compounding these relatively milder temperatures, right now (as in today) the snow water equivalent of the snow amassed in the Upper Clark Fork drainage (which will eventually flow right through Missoula) is, get this, 173% of twenty year averages none of which has begun to make its way down the mountains. To the contrary, with continuing snow that number may well increase this number in the weeks ahead if we have a delayed runoff, which it now looks like 2018 will bring. Here are some specific numbers: at Warm Springs (about 100 miles upstream of Missoula) the current snow water equivalent (SWE) is 38.8 inches (compared to a twenty year norm of 21.2”) and at the upstream Skalkaho Summit the current SWE is 33.7 inches as compared to the twenty year norm of 21.7 “, 183% and 155% above twenty year norms comparatively.
Check out our historical flow chart attached, gang. Other high water years of 2008 and 2011 saw us trekking over the Divide to fish the Missouri and, starting in two weeks when we begin logging in this year’s actual Rock Creek flow you will see, by way of comparison, what 2018’s runoff has to offer as it unfolds. What we would ideally like to see in a runoff is a redux of 2009’s perfect bell curve (the black line on our chart) but we shall now see what we shall see is ahead of us.
What does all of this mean for us, you ask??
Well, our Double Up Outfitter John “The Great But Propaneless” [and, as Group One rookie Shane “Griz” MacIntyre would argue based on his fishing experience with me last Wednesday, now “Grilless” as well!] Gould has put me on notice to think about reserving “bus transportation to the Mo” for at least Group One, and perhaps Group Two as well (something that we procured on a standby basis just today with our good friends at Tucker Transportation, btw) as we now need to carefully monitor just what runoff Mother Nature has in store for us this year (and you can see her wide, wide year to variances in our charting of Rock Creek over the past decade), so, at this point in time, the ending chapters of our runoff book have yet to be written—kinda exciting, isn’t it?!?. Looking to that end, I will begin giving you trice-weekly charted flow reports of this year’s runoff commencing in two weeks on April 29th.
Can you hear the rumbling of all of that downhill runoff in the distance??
Best to all in the pre-runoff stages of it all,
Rock Creek Ron
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